2008 was a bumper year for wind energy investment. The US added 8,300 megawatts (MW) of wind energy to lead the world with 25,170 MW. 42% of the country’s new power-producing capacity came from wind. The 50% increase in wind power generation also created 35,000 jobs bringing the total employee bast to 85,000.
Worldwide over 27 gigawatts (GW) of wind capacity was added. China doubled capacity to 12.2 GW and is on tract to double capacity again in 2009 and may reach its goal of 30 (GW) by 2010, ten years ahead of plan. All of Asia added about 8.3 GW with Europe and North America adding 8.9 GW each.
In the US, the financial crisis hit the wind industry and orders for turbines and components has slowed to a trickle. This needs to be reversed quickly if the US is to stay ahead of schedule to reach 300 GW of wind capacity, or 20% of our electricity needs, by 2030.
Larry Kazmerski, from the National Research Energy Lab (NREL) in Golden, CO was the keynote speaker at this month’s Night with a Futurist put on by The DaVinci Institute. Kazmerski entertained the largest crowd to attend a Night with a Futurist event throughout his lecture while hitting on these 5 key points:
Solar is real – now
Investment in Policy and R&D are priorities
Cutting time from lab to manufacturing is key
Significant increase in science and technical workforce is needed
Balancing near and longterm R&D must be maintained
The highlight of the evening was a story from Kazmerski’s early days at NREL. A local newspaper reporter seemed uninterested in his description of the energy conversion properties of some of the PV cells they were testing. When the talk turned to the government officials visiting from Saudi Arabia, Kazmerski convinced the reporter the Saudi’s were investing heavily in solar energy and that they planned to sell the US sand for silicon production at $40 per barrel. This appeared in the the paper the following week and Kazmerski claims he still holds the record for fewest seconds between arrival at NREL and a summons to the director’s office.
So, how many Google searches produce the equivalent CO2 emissions as boiling a cup of water?
A confusing question unless you been following the stream of posts generated by the Sunday Times of Londonquoting (or misquoting) Harvard University physicistAlex Wissner-Gross‘ study on the energy used by view webpages. IN the story, the Times reporters stated “Performing two Google searches from a desktop computer can generate about the same amount of carbon dioxide as boiling a kettle for a cup of tea, according to new research.” This seems to equate to about 7 grams of CO2.
Google immediatelyresponded in a blog poststating “we have designed and built the mostenergy efficient data centersin the world, which means the energy used per Google search is minimalsuggesting the number is closer to 0.02 grams per search.” And went on to state the energy used by the PC performing the search is greater than the search itself.
Meanwhile according to Tech News World,Wissner-Gross claims neither he nor the studymentioned Google or had anything to do with Google and certainly not with tea kettles. “They did that. I have no idea where they got those statistics,” Wissner-Gross said.
And in response to these back and forth discussions, more than a few bloggers have decided to weigh in:
Van is correct that the Green Economy can provide opportunities for a people of all walks of life. And that we have to move and move quickly. The need to conserve, use renewables and offset Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) will create many jobs where there have been few. (i.e. Building Nuclear and Wind power stations.) There will be many jobs that come from the need to reduce GHGs throughout the rest of the economy starting with our own actions to conserve energy. And while the US does need to move toward better family balance sheets, the picture painted here is overly bleak.
Grove wants to focus on retrofitting a few high volume, low mileage models to test the theory. His goal is to reduce the dependency of our transportation system on petroleum and therefore foreign interests by moving more of our transportation miles to rely on electricity. Arguing that electricity is generated using a variety of fuel sources and a higher carbon productivity rate, this will also reduce GHGs emissions.
His article received a significant amount of feedback encouraging him to prepare a response only a few days after the original was posted. Primary concerns of those writing in were:
Electricity Generation
Electrical Grid Capacity
Small Impact of 1 million Cars
Getting Political Support
and one reader who suggested he stick to his knitting and leave energy to others.
The European Parliament has approved a deal to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the 27-member bloc. The package will obligate EU nations to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 20 percent by 2020 from 1990 levels. The package also seeks a 20 percent energy savings and increasing the use of renewable energy sources up to 20 percent of the total. Lawmakers in Strasbourg also agreed measures to cut CO2 emissions from new cars by 18 percent by 2015.
President-elect Obama has followed up on his campaign climate commitments in selecting his “Green Team” for environment, energy and new coordinating positions. His picks confirm the Obama administration intends for the US to make an about-face on energy and environmental issues. His selections are experienced in alternative energy and cap-and-trade systems. In several cases choosing science and engineering over legal and political experience, Obama is clearly indicating the climate debates in his administration will include significant scientific evidence.
Steven Chu, the director of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and a 1997 corecipient of the Nobel Prize in Physics, is Obama’s pick for secretary of energy. Lisa Jackson, a former commissioner of New Jersey’s Department of Environmental Protection who was trained as a chemical engineer, is nominated for the post as administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency. And Carol Browner, former EPA chief in the Clinton administration, has been asked to serve as a “high-level coordinator” on energy issues—and perhaps something of a “czar” on climate change.
Department of Energy – Steven Chu
At Berkeley, Chu has strongly advocated research into solar power and advanced biomass, in particular biofuels made from grasses that won’t compete for space with farmland. At a talk this summer in Nevada, Chu said, “In the first eight months of a new research program, we have developed ways to separate out cellulose, and we have already made a yeast [that] makes a gasolinelike fuel. Already within eight months, we are working on diesel and jet replacement fuels. We need to work with making this really scalable so it will outperform the yeast we have to today.” (One potential disagreement with Obama: Chu has criticized corn-based ethanol, which Obama has strongly supported in the Senate and in the campaign.)
Administrator of the EPA – Lisa Jackson
Ms. Jackson had been the head of New Jersey’s Department of Environmental Protection since 2006, and in October, Gov. Jon S. Corzine announced that she would become his chief of staff starting on December. She presently serves as Vice President of the Executive Board of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, a program organized by northeast states to develop a regional cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from energy producers. She has a master’s degree in chemical engineering from Princeton and spent 16 years at the federal E.P.A. as a top enforcement officer in Washington and New York. She has led the Obama transition team at E.P.A. and knows the agency inside and out, according to associates.
Coordinator of Energy and Environmental Policy
Browner will work closely with Obama, who pledged his “personal engagement” in these issues, and coordinate the work of the DOE, EPA, as well as the federal, state and local governments. Obamo pointed out that Browner will bring her experience from the EPA of establishing the NOx and SO2 emissions trading programme. On the international stage, she was behind drafting the US’ submission to the Kyoto protocol in 1997, which he said was the “the best framework for carbon policy that has ever been developed.”
Ms. Browner, an acolyte of former Vice President Al Gore, will have forceful support in the new Congress, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Representative Henry A. Waxman of California, who will be the new chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, and Senator Barbara Boxer of California, who is returning as chairwoman of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. Opposing their efforts will be many Republicans and some Democrats, as well as manufacturers, utilities, oil companies and coal producers who will bear the brunt of the costs of any steps to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, the main culprit in global warming.
The nominees have a record of supporting high levels of federal involvement in energy and environmental issues, both in terms of money invested and regulatory oversight. During the early 1990s, Browner earned a reputation for attempting to uphold water and air regulations in the face of opposition from congressional Republicans. Jackson, likewise, at a congressional hearing last May on mercury emissions, told lawmakers, “Implementing the real maximum achievable protections is simply the only moral and ethical choice available if we are to meet our responsibility as public officials.”
The 2008-2009 economic recession has had a major impact on energy prices and price estimates for 2009. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates petroleum products consumption in 2008 will fall 5.8% from the 2007 average and another 1% in 2009. Electricity consumption in 2008 is expected to be flat with 2007 and to decline in 2009. With spot fuel prices down from summer 2008 highs, residential electricity rates are predicted to rise 6% in 2008 and 5% in 2009.
The good news is that carbon based energy will be lower as petroleum consumption and electricity demand decrease. And with an increase in wind, nuclear, natural gas and petroleum fueled electricity generation, electricity produced by burning coal should fall 0.2% in 2009. Unfortunately, these changes do little to alter the GreenHouse Gas (GHG) emissions forecast from the “Business as Usual” scenario (See Increasing Carbon Productivity Tenfold).
According to the The Carbon Productivity Challenge published by McKinsey & Company, the world has 50 years to increase carbon productivity from $7,300 GDP per ton of CO2e to $740 GDP per ton of CO2e. Some big steps are needed with a cost for GHG emissions via a cap and trade system at the top of the list.
Citing lower forecasts in 2009 output along with an increase in the number of firms announcing temporary shutdowns, analysts are scaling back their forecasts for carbon emissions and the price for allowances for those emissions. Societe Generale has cut their forecast for EUAs a third to 17 euros a ton. They went on to say prices could rise to 20 euros by 2012, sharply down from estimates earlier this year that prices would reach 37 euros during this timeframe.
Deutsche Bank believes EU emissions in 2009 could be 10% below 2007 levels. This would push emissions below allowances for 2009. The excess allowances for 2009 can be “banked” for use through 2012 and the forecasted emissions for 2009-2012 remain slightly above the EU carbon allowances. As a result of reduced emissions and smaller shortfall, UN-approved Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) which EU industry can import from developing nations to meet compliance, may be able to meet the entire shortfall. Price estimates for EUAs and CERs clearly indicate analysts believe CERs will set the pricing for EUAs for the next few years.
The good news is EU will be able to meet the allowances under phase 2 with a small “carbon price” in this recessionary period. This is also the bad news, as the lower price reduces the investment per ton of CO2 available for carbon abatement projects. The net is by 2012, the European Union will have done less and perhaps much less to lower the Green House Gases (GHG) they produce per unit of energy they consume than anticipated when the allowance allocations were set.
November 11, 2008 at 9:54 pm · Filed under Uncategorized
Arvada based SkyFuel announces the SkyTrough, a parabolic trough concentrator able to deliver energy at 35% below the costs of commercially available systems. This is an example of another company working with NREL in Golden, CO, to bring a product to market. The two worked with the University of New Mexico to develop the largest trough modeles ever built at 375 feett long and 20 feet high.
The cost savings comes mainly from the use of a low-cost, highly reflective, shatterproof proprieteary silvered-polymer film rather than heavy, expensive and fragile curved mirrors.